Citi Cuts Bitcoin and Ether Forecasts as ETF Flows Turn Negative

What Happened

Citi reduced its 12-month price forecasts for bitcoin and ether, signaling a more cautious view on the two largest cryptocurrencies by market value. The bank now expects bitcoin to reach $82,000 over the next year, compared with its previous target of $112,000. It also lowered its ether forecast to $2,240 from $3,175.

The downgrade comes as crypto markets face a weaker demand backdrop. Bitcoin recently traded near $58,864, its lowest level since September 2024, while ether traded near $1,585, its weakest level since April 2025. Both assets have fallen sharply from previous highs as investors reassess risk, liquidity and policy expectations.

The most important change in Citi’s outlook is its revised view on exchange-traded fund flows. The bank lowered its expected net ETF inflows over the next 12 months to zero from a previous estimate of $10 billion. In simple terms, Citi no longer expects ETF demand to provide the same support for bitcoin and ether prices that it previously anticipated.

Crypto ETFs had been viewed as a major bridge between traditional finance and digital assets. They allowed investors to gain exposure to bitcoin and ether through regulated market products without directly holding tokens. However, when money leaves those funds, the same mechanism can work in reverse and add pressure to prices.

Key Details

Citi said ETF flows have recently turned negative, making them a central factor behind the revised forecasts. The bank estimated that bitcoin ETF flows were down by about $3.3 billion so far this year. That shift matters because ETF demand had become one of the clearest indicators of broader investor adoption.

The bank also pointed to stalled progress on U.S. crypto legislation. Digital asset investors had expected clearer rules to improve confidence, support institutional adoption and reduce uncertainty for companies operating in the sector. Instead, the slower policy timeline has made it harder for the market to price in a strong regulatory catalyst.

Another concern is potential selling pressure from digital asset treasury companies. These are companies that hold large amounts of bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies on their balance sheets. If market conditions worsen, investors may worry that some of those holders could reduce exposure, adding another layer of uncertainty.

At the same time, investor attention has shifted toward artificial intelligence-related assets. This rotation matters because speculative capital often moves toward sectors with stronger momentum. When AI-linked stocks, chips and infrastructure companies attract more attention, crypto can lose part of the capital flow that previously supported prices.

Citi’s bear-case scenario is more severe. Under recessionary macroeconomic conditions and continued ETF outflows, the bank sees bitcoin at $53,000 and ether at $1,094 over the next year. That scenario reflects a weaker risk environment, lower liquidity and continued caution toward digital assets.

Why It Matters

The Citi bitcoin forecast is important because it reflects a broader change in how major financial institutions are evaluating the crypto market. For much of the recent cycle, bitcoin and ether benefited from expectations of ETF adoption, institutional inflows and clearer regulation. Citi’s downgrade suggests that those drivers are now less certain.

For investors, the message is that crypto prices are increasingly tied to traditional market forces. ETF flows, interest-rate expectations, recession risk, regulatory policy and sector rotation now play a larger role in bitcoin and ether performance. That makes the market less dependent on crypto-native narratives alone.

The downgrade also highlights the importance of liquidity. When investors are adding money to ETFs, demand can support prices. When they withdraw money, the pressure can spread quickly across the market. This is especially relevant for bitcoin because spot ETF flows have become a visible measure of institutional appetite.

For ether, the outlook is more complicated. Ethereum remains central to stablecoins, decentralized applications and tokenization, but ether’s price has struggled as investors question how much of that activity translates directly into token demand. Citi’s lower ether target suggests the bank is taking a more conservative view of that relationship.

The policy backdrop also matters. Clearer U.S. digital asset regulation could help banks, asset managers and public companies become more comfortable with crypto exposure. Without that clarity, broader adoption may remain slower than expected.

What Happens Next

The next major signal to watch is whether ETF flows stabilize. If outflows slow or turn positive again, it could improve sentiment and support a more constructive outlook for bitcoin and ether. However, if ETF withdrawals continue, the market may remain under pressure.

Investors will also monitor U.S. legislative progress on digital assets. A clearer regulatory framework could become a catalyst for renewed institutional interest. On the other hand, continued delays may reinforce the view that the market lacks a near-term policy boost.

Macroeconomic conditions will be another key factor. If recession fears increase, risk assets such as cryptocurrencies may face additional pressure. If financial conditions improve, investors may become more willing to re-enter higher-volatility assets.

The rotation into AI-related investments is also worth watching. If capital continues to favor AI infrastructure, chips and software, crypto may need a stronger catalyst to regain momentum. That catalyst could come from ETF inflows, regulation, network growth or renewed retail participation.

For now, Citi’s revised outlook suggests a more cautious phase for crypto markets. Bitcoin and ether still have potential upside in the bank’s base case, but that upside is smaller than before and depends heavily on demand returning.

Key Facts

• Citi cut its 12-month bitcoin target to $82,000 from $112,000.
• Citi reduced its 12-month ether forecast to $2,240 from $3,175.
• The bank lowered its expected net ETF inflows to zero from $10 billion over the next 12 months.
• Bitcoin ETF flows were estimated to be negative by about $3.3 billion so far this year.
• Citi’s bear case sees bitcoin at $53,000 and ether at $1,094 if recessionary conditions and ETF outflows continue.

Conclusion

Citi’s decision to cut its bitcoin and ether forecasts shows how quickly the crypto outlook can change when ETF flows weaken, investor appetite fades and regulatory uncertainty persists. The key question now is whether bitcoin and ether can attract fresh demand without a clear policy catalyst. For readers following the crypto market, the most important indicators to watch next are ETF flows, U.S. digital asset legislation, macroeconomic risk and whether capital continues shifting toward AI-related assets.